ARYA RAVAL AND KUMAR
1. What was your initial reaction as an election analyst to the BJP's defeat in Karnataka by a huge margin.
Bit surprising. My analysis had a base level of Bjp 90-95. But there is a clear Ahinda vote shift to Congress among poorer voters. Ahinda is a slogan coined by Siddharamaiah and means a combination of Minorities and Backward classes.
2. What do you think were the factors that led to BJP's loss in Karnataka, and why did the public not vote for them?
The Congress party carried out a much more focused campaign. I believe they started much earlier than BJP, they went from village to village, house to house. The anti-inflation pitch along with the freebies campaign worked in moving significant parts of poorer voters to INC. BJP failed to counter the campaign and relied on general rallies.
3. Did Congress's Bharat Jodo Yatra have an impact on their victory in Karnataka, or was it due to anti-incumbency?
I don't think the Bharat Jodo Yatra had an impact. Yes, there were crowds in the Yatra and we need to understand that Congress has a vast organization in Karnataka, so the people who joined the Yatra would be Congress Karyakartas and their families. It was anti-incumbency in the end which led to a BJP loss.
4. What surprised you the most during the counting day as an experienced election analyst?
Big surprises would include the loss of popular Hassan MLA Preetham Gowda and the loss of the two seats in Coorg (which have been BJP strongholds). Also surprising was the big margin of wins by some Congress candidates. Eg. take Chitradurga seat. BJP MLA Thippareddy had a 30000 margin last time. However, he lost by 50000 votes, which indicates a shift of 80000 votes.
5. What measures do you think BJP will take to overcome the Karnataka defeat?
BJP has to appoint new blood and new young leadership in Karnataka. BY Vijayendra is very popular among BJP ranks and BJP would do well to appoint him as State Party President.
6. Has the PM's face and his brand image lost its effectiveness, and does BJP need to change its election strategy?
It is both true and false. In urban Bangalore, his face added votes and the same in the Coastal region. The PM didn’t campaign much in rural areas. He remains a good draw for Lok Sabha. Karnataka is known to vote very differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly. However last time BJP won 26 out of 28, I would be wary of projecting a number now.
7. Was Congress's decision to ban Bajrang Dal a blunder, and is BJP's Hindutva policy backfiring?
I don’t think. It consolidated more minority votes for Congress. Hindutva works only in Coastal Karnataka, it doesn't work in other regions.
8. What impact do you think the Karnataka defeat will have on BJP's chances in the 2024 general elections?
This win for Congress in Karnataka has given it a big boost. The prospects of Rahul Gandhi have improved now. Opposition voters and anti-BJP voters in the rest of the country who drifted away from Congress to parties like RJD, SP, BSP, BSR, TMC etc might come back to Congress in some ways.
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