KUMAR
To Introduce myself, I am an avid Indian political watcher and election analyst for 3 decades.
The entire country's attention is on the Karnataka elections scheduled to be held in a single phase of voting on 10th May. Counting is scheduled for 13th May. This note focuses on past election results, vote shares, the issues impacting current elections, current opinion poll trends, and a quick look at some high-voltage fights.
Basics
First a quick look at the basics. Karnataka has 224 assembly segments and the halfway mark is 113. Currently, Karnataka has a BJP government with B S Bommai as Chief Minister. BJP has 120 seats in the assembly and Congress has 69 seats.
Past Election And Government
In 2018, when elections were held, BJP won 104 seats and Congress won 80 seats with Congress leading BJP by 1.8% in vote shares. Karnataka has had unique vote share skew in the past. BJP has been weaker in the Old Mysore region and has more concentrated votes in other regions.
As BJP was the single largest party, it staked a claim for the government formation, however, CM designate B S Yeddyurappa didn't have the numbers. Hence, he resigned and Karnataka got a coalition government with Kumaraswamy as CM with Congress support.
However, this government didn't last a full term. Many Congress/JDS MLAs defected to BJP. This resulted in many bye-elections, most of which the BJP won. BJP crossed the halfway mark and formed a government. Yeddyurappa became Chief Minister.
Post all the bye-elections, BJP has 120 seats in the state assembly and Congress has 69. The recalculated vote share of the BJP has exceeded the Congress vote share for the first time. Current BJP vote share (post-bye polls) is 37.8% and Congress is 37%.
Issues Against The BJP Government
There are corruption allegations against the BJP government. The Congress has managed to successfully create a perception of 40% Sarkara.
Reduced Rations: The BJP government's allocation of free rations to the poor is lower than the earlier Congress Siddharamaiah government.
CM Perception: BJP changed the CM midway in July 2021 from Yeddyurappa to B S Bommai. Bommai has had a short time of 22 months to work and has had to battle big perception issues of lack of authority on MLAs, corruption allegations on his government, Bangalore infrastructure issues, etc.
Bangalore Infrastructure Complaints: Bangalore has had slower construction of Metros, frequent complaints of potholed roads, huge flooding during rains, etc.
Inflation: This is a common complaint among lower and poorer classes due to the rise in gas cylinder prices, and diesel/petrol prices.
Issues Favouring The BJP Government
The Modi government and BJP state government have implemented 39 lakhs of tap water connections under the Jal Jeevan mission.
Bommai govt has provided farmer children scholarships under his Raithar Vidhya Nidhi scheme for 12 Lakh farmers.
B S Bommai and Yeddyurappa have worked with MLAs to fill up 1000s of lakes and ponds in Karnataka in the last 3 years. This has helped recharge groundwater and has helped farmers.
Good infrastructure developments have happened in Karnataka like Mysore Bangalore Expressway, Doubling/electrification of rail lines like Bangalore Mysore, Bangalore Dharmavaram Guntakal Raichur, Bangalore Hubli (Underworks and very high part completed), Terminal 2 of Bangalore airport, 2nd runway in Bangalore, New airports at Shimoga done and being built at Vijayapura, IIT at Dharwad, new medical colleges at Chikmagalur, Yadgir, Haveri, etc.
Bommai govt resolved the 2-decade-old Tanda issue by recognizing over 3000 Banjara/Tanda villages as revenue villages, opening funding for schools, anganwadis, roads, etc.
The BJP has tried to battle perception by changing as many as nearly 100 candidates and nominating younger candidates.
PM Modi continues to remain very popular in Karnataka and BJP does utilize him for a lot of campaigning.
Current Opinion Poll Trends
Opinion polls have been mixed and many favour Congress returning to power or as the single largest party in the case of a Hung parliament. ABP C-Voter poll gives BJP 70-85 and Congress 110. Edina poll gives BJP lower numbers at 55 and Congress 130 plus seats. However, Zee Matrize and Jan Ki Baat polls give BJP leading at 100-110 seats and Congress 80-95.
High-Voltage Fights
Following are the high-voltage battles happening currently.
Puttur. This is a comfortable seat for BJP but has a very high-profile rebel in Arun Puthila. Puthila was in demand but BJP gave a ticket to Asha Gowda. The Congress candidate is Ex BJP, Ashok Rai.
Hassan. This seat (In JDS bastion Mandya) has BJP MLA Preetham Gowda who is very popular. He challenged Revanna's family. The JDS saw a month-long negotiation as Revanna wanted to field his wife Bhavani but Kumaraswamy wanted to field Swaroop Prakash, after one month of negotiations, finally JDS fielded Swaroop.
Varuna- Siddharamaiah spent a long time selecting a seat. Finally, the high command asked him to fight from Varuna, his son's seat. BJP has made the fight interesting by fielding senior leader V Somanna who is a Lingayat. This seat has a big Lingayat population.
Hubli Dharwad Central. BJP denied the ticket to its MLA Jagdish Shettar who was also Ex-CM. Shettar has left BJP and joined Congress which has fielded him from Hubli Dharwad Central seat. BJP has nominated Mahesh Tenginkai who used to help Jagdish Shettar's elections in the past.
To wrap up this note, this Karnataka election is very important to both BJP and Congress. Karnataka is the only state in South India with BJP and if BJP loses, it makes the 2024 LS battle tougher for BJP. For the Congress party, Karnataka is one of the very few big states where it is strong. It has a big Karyakarta base and a loss in Karnataka will weaken Congress nationally.
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